Sanity and Pwns

Obama should select Hillary Clinton as Vice President.

There is a common trend in the media that he doesn’t need her, that she doesn’t fix any of his problems, that she doesn’t help him in any states he needs help in. I often wonder, on this blog, whether the media simply doesn’t know the statistical information that’s showing up in the polls and therefore it isn’t that they have some secret plan to misrepresent the facts, they are simply uninformed.

Drudge Report recently cited CNN as saying the Obama and Clinton campaigns have begun talks over Clinton ending her campaign and then ending up as Obama’s VP. And Obama has to take this deal.

Obama only needs to win Ohio. He has a huge base and should steamroll McCain in the general election. But the media is right about one thing, right now, the polls aren’t THAT good for Senator Obama. They say “he can’t win the white voters” and other things. Or that he needs to pick someone from Ohio or Pennsylvania.

I disagree. Obama’s biggest problem in the upcoming election is Democrats. Pundits say they will come back to him once Hillary leaves the race, and he needs them to. Obama is looking at less than 70% support from Democrats in some states that he is losing. In some states less than 60% of Democrats say they’ll vote for him. And guess what? He is still within single digits in many of those polls.

Obama is out-polling McCain among moderates and independents. His problem is not the middle, it’s the conservative left, and Hillary has shaped her campaign in such a way to become their unofficial spokesperson (a little ironic, I know). If the Democratic party unites, with a Obama Clinton ticket, there will be a major shift in the national map. Obama has been polling 5% down in Texas - Hillary will help him among Democrats there. He could make a play for Texas, and if he wins Texas, obviously, McCain wouldn’t have a chance in the world.

Obama might not need Clinton. I think he’d probably win without her. But I’d say he has a 3/5 chance to win without Clinton and a 4/5 chance to win with her, and that is a pretty big boost from a VP candidate.