michaelmee
Strategy Session: Mapping an Obama Presidency
Posted by michaelmee on May 13, 2008
According to the Rasmussen poll released on 5/12, if the poll’s % translate into the results, McCain wins 320-218 in the electoral vote. But, I don’t think that means much at this point. Obama has multiple paths to victory.
In the poll, McCain beats Obama by 1% in New Jersey, within the margin of error. Even with a close poll, I think it is fair to say that Obama will most likely win New Jersey vs. McCain in November, and this particular sample is variance. So I’m going to just flip New Jersey to Obama. *(An avg of polls in the state has Obama ahead anyway)
The Midwest Plan
The first strategy, which might be the most likely to pursue due to recent voting trends and where Obama is from is the mid-west strategy. Obama can easily, and will probably, flip Michigan from a 1% McCain lead to a Obama lead by November. If Obama flips Ohio and Michigan, the Democrats win 270-268. That doesn’t even factor in the decent shot Obama will have in Indiana and Wisconsin.
States to Focus On:
Ohio
Michigan
Wisconsin
Indiana
The Southwestern Plan
The second strategy would rely on a massive political coup, which would be to flip the state of Texas to the Democrats, while winning Colorado. If Obama shifts his focus to the south west, he could survive losing Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
States to Focus On:
Texas
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
The East Coast Plan
The third strategy is to flip the map on the eastern coast. Obama is within 5% of McCain in the states of Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina - and most polls show him even closer, and this is without the national campaign truly beginning. If Obama swings those three states his way, it produces a 269-269 tie, and he must find one more state somewhere else. The most likely source would be Colorado.
States to Focus On:
Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Florida
This entry was posted on May 13, 2008 at 5:54 pm and is filed under Barack Obama, Commentary, General Election, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, North Carolina, Polls, Sanity. Tagged: clinton, Colorado, election, electoral votes, Florida, Indiana, McCain, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, obama, Ohio, President, Texas, Virginia. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
May 13, 2008 at 7:56 pm
We want justice and truth, not to be told to stay positive and think good thoughts.
Dear Editor -
Have You Ever Seen A Concentrated 35 Year Steady Movement & Effort Have To Take Place To Elect Any Man?
This is all such baloney! Donna Brazile asked me “why couldn’t the Clinton’s have waited?”
SUPER DELEGATES THE EYES OF THE NATION & THE WORLD ARE ON YOU If your job was simply to vote the constituency, you wouldn’t be needed for close races. ! She should stay as long as she wants. Most his supporters would vote for he. Most of hers, not for him. We want justice and truth, not to be told to stay positive and think good thoughts.
I am not speaking racist or sexist. I am speaking about strategy and greed having been put above all other issues that burden Americans. I am speaking about justice and injustice. Being the elder, with a thirty five year steady movement behind her, and 70% of voter support prior to Barrack entering the race, this was Hillary’s time for Americans. Due to the 2006 knowledge of a large voter turn out, the Democratic National Committee chose to try and elect what would be our first African American president. While young, the hope of the quick building, arm twisting elites of the DNC and sudden persuasion for African American politicians to leave the Clinton Campaign was like an opening of floodgates. The therefore a “broken” 2008 Coalition for an Election based on Race began. The seeds of division were planted and now have trickled down to the public, who is furious that they have been asked to vote for Race or Gender in the same election and at such a crucial time of War, Security and Economics that faces Americans. Once again the public has been played by the good ‘ol Washington tricks and special interests.
Obama would show enough experience, in the frenzy of an impatient nation with his charismatic articulation of hope. This atmosphere would present probably the best good opportunity for a younger, hopeful African American. His and the DNC’s strategy is politics as usual reflecting the very actions in Washington Senator Obama vows to end.
One should note that without the Democratic Party, we would still not see a person of color or a woman running for office. And the country needs a desperate break from primarily Republican rule over the past three decades. Senator Clinton had the dignity and courage to agree to cough up her some 70% lead and national support from late 2006, which is something I, possibly the nation have never seen either party do! She has been stomped on harshly for three months by manipulating pundits and long time politicians who have a vested interest in manipulating Obama’s youth to push through legislation that otherwise, with some democrats like Hillary Clinton, they could not achieve before retiring into the sunset for the historians to bless them positively.
Thanks guys! All we wanted was justice and the truth. Not to be told stay positive, think good thoughts. All we wanted was possibly eight years (being the elder) of Madam President to end the long movement for the equality of women with another eight years from Obama, ending the race issue, while all the time making change and undoing the horror of the Cheney/Bush years. Someone got selfish! And it has not been Hillary Clinton or the millions of Americans who have worked billions of hours from beginning in their youth, walking with her over 35 years to the steps of the White House. Shame on the DNC this election. Stop blaming Hillary Clinton for your mess!
Cindy Hadden
Centralia, WA 98531