According to the Rasmussen poll released on 5/12, if the poll’s % translate into the results, McCain wins 320-218 in the electoral vote. But, I don’t think that means much at this point. Obama has multiple paths to victory.

In the poll, McCain beats Obama by 1% in New Jersey, within the margin of error. Even with a close poll, I think it is fair to say that Obama will most likely win New Jersey vs. McCain in November, and this particular sample is variance. So I’m going to just flip New Jersey to Obama. *(An avg of polls in the state has Obama ahead anyway)

The Midwest Plan

The first strategy, which might be the most likely to pursue due to recent voting trends and where Obama is from is the mid-west strategy. Obama can easily, and will probably, flip Michigan from a 1% McCain lead to a Obama lead by November. If Obama flips Ohio and Michigan, the Democrats win 270-268. That doesn’t even factor in the decent shot Obama will have in Indiana and Wisconsin.

States to Focus On:

Ohio

Michigan

Wisconsin

Indiana

The Southwestern Plan

The second strategy would rely on a massive political coup, which would be to flip the state of Texas to the Democrats, while winning Colorado. If Obama shifts his focus to the south west, he could survive losing Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

States to Focus On:

Texas

Colorado

New Mexico

Nevada

The East Coast Plan

The third strategy is to flip the map on the eastern coast. Obama is within 5% of McCain in the states of Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina - and most polls show him even closer, and this is without the national campaign truly beginning. If Obama swings those three states his way, it produces a 269-269 tie, and he must find one more state somewhere else. The most likely source would be Colorado.

States to Focus On:

Virginia

North Carolina

South Carolina

Florida