Sanity and Pwns

It’s never too early to start reading the general election polls. I’m nervous by nature, and I need to be very sure Obama will defeat McCain in November, so I’ll be following the states very closely. So, with that in mind, I’m starting a daily looking at various states that will matter in November. First up, is one of the most interesting states for this election cycle: Texas.

In 2004, George Bush secured over 60% of the vote in Texas. Even for the upcoming election, Rasmussen has Texas ranked as a firmly Republican state. The Republicans better win Texas if they want to keep the White House, but I am not so sure they will.

In the latest poll by Rasmussen McCain is leading Obama by 5% in the state of Texas. Obama is running strong in New Mexico and Colorado, and both will be swing states. If Obama selects someone like Bill Richardson as Vice President, it should help the Obama campaign in all three of these states.

Even so, 5% is a solid lead, but will it hold for Senator McCain? Obama is trailing by 5 points, but only after the worst portion of his campaign, and McCain has faced zero opposition. Obama has only garnered the support of 69% of Democrats in the state, compared to over 80% for Hillary Clinton.

Once the Democratic race settles, it would be hard to imagine that number remaining static. Democrats should move back towards Obama, and the overall gap in Texas should move closer to even.

So, I don’t see Texas as being a firmly red state in November. McCain still has a good advantage, so if I was betting, I’d put money on him. But what would the odds be? I’d give McCain a 65% chance of winning the state in November. Obama will give him a run for his money.