Posted by michaelmee on May 6, 2008
12:01 AM: Indiana is back in play.
7:59 PM: Although the news networks haven’t called Indiana yet, I’m going to call it for Clinton. Looking at the county by county map, there are not enough pro-Obama counties left to make up the deficit that exists with about 40% reporting.
7:47 PM: Indiana needs to get closer, or we’re in for a surprise. All indications had Obama within 5% in Indiana, but Clinton is holding it above double digits. Given, the counties that have reported most of their votes went for Hillary, but she is taking the counties in overwhelming numbers.
7:45 PM: Obama’s victory in North Carolina will most likely be huge. I predicted 12%, It might be even larger. She lost both males and females in the state by double digits, according to exit polls.
7:31 PM: Obama wins North Carolina, as called by CNN.
7:28 PM: TV Pundits are acting stupid, like usual. I have heard - twice now - on MSNBC that a Hillary win in Indiana would be a “come back” and a 20 point swing within a month. As I’ve said in other posts, Obama was never legitimately winning in Indiana, save for a five day period, and only two of those polls were beyond the margin of error. The media loves story lines though, so they will continue to purposefully misinterpret data.
7:25 PM: If CNN’s exit poll holds up, Clinton will win Indiana by 4%.
7:11 PM: Exit polls as well as actual counting show Clinton winning, but it is too close to call. The exit polls in Indiana look bad for Obama, but he is close enough that they could be predicting the wrong winner.
CNN.com shows that Obama lost both the male and female vote in their Indiana exit poll, but only slightly, and I’ll be waiting to see the final results.
Posted in Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Indiana, North Carolina, Polls, Pwns, Sanity, Thoughts | Tagged: clinton, indiana results, north carolina results, obama, Polls, results | No Comments »
Posted by michaelmee on May 6, 2008
I will use this thread to get live results and comments out there as they appear.
6:52 PM: Clinton has a huge, but early lead in Indiana. With 3% reporting she is taking over 60% of the vote. She is leading in every county that has begun counting votes. With that said, she is expected to win most of the counties that have begun counting, although I think Obama’s people will probably be worried about the counties next to Indianapolis where he is currently losing.
5:34 PM: Yahoo’s exit poll tease appears favorable to Obama. According to their numbers, “About one in five said they were independents and one in 10 identified themselves as Republican” in Indiana. That is about 30% of the voters being from outside the party, and Obama does better with those groups. Obama winning these groups was hinted at earlier by pundits at MSNBC, although they never said so outright, and never gave a source.
5:27 PM: According to Drudge Report (www.drudgereport.com) leaked Exit polls show that Obama has an easy victory in North Carolina. I predicted a 12 point win, as I saw late deciders and voter turnout breaking Obama’s way, so this would be in line with what the data was showing.
Drudge’s headline is “Exits Show Easy Obama Win” in the state of North Carolina.
Posted in Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Indiana, North Carolina, Polls, Sanity, Thoughts | Tagged: Barack Obama, democrat, election results, Hillary Clinton, Indiana, may 6th primary, North Carloina | 1 Comment »
Posted by michaelmee on May 6, 2008
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1499 released their final poll this morning. And, at least
in Zogby, we are seeing the reverse-Obama effect in Indiana and North Carolina. While I predicted that in North Carolina, I didn’t think it would happen in Indiana.
“The overall Obama advantage in Indiana—though statistically insignificant—comes after another strong day of polling Monday. The one-day total, which comprises about half of the two-day tracking poll sample, saw Obama winning 47% support to Clinton’s 41%. Monday’s polling results are combined with Sunday’s numbers to produce the two-day tracking poll.“
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Posted in Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Indiana, North Carolina, Sanity, Uncategorized | Tagged: clinton, Democratic primary, Indiana, obama, primary, zogby | No Comments »
Posted by michaelmee on May 6, 2008
Posted in Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Indiana, North Carolina, Sanity | Tagged: Barack Obama, democrat, election, Hillary Clinton, indiana primary, North Carloina primary, primary | 1 Comment »
michaelmee
campaign, that they wouldn’t be shocked to go down by 15 points in North Carolina today.
In the Aftermath: What’s Next for the Democrats?
Posted by michaelmee on May 6, 2008
I am sensing that the chance Obama wins Indiana and ends this is higher than anticipated, but it is still
much more likely they split Indiana and North Carolina. There will be added pressure on Clinton to drop out of the race, but unless things really go Obama’s way - and hell, even if they do - she will be marching on to some states where she likes her chances. Even so, things look to be coming to an end when we analyze the path this election is about to go down.
Barack Obama has 1745 estimated delegates, as projected by CNN.com. He needs 280 more to secure the nomination. Most analysts assume he will do better, but even if he only secures half of the pledged delegates at stake this evening, that would add 94 delegates to his count - bringing his total to 1839. And on we go:
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Posted in Barack Obama, Commentary, Hillary Clinton, Indiana, North Carolina, Polls, Sanity, West Virginia | Tagged: Barack Obama, democrats, Hillary Clinton, indiana primary, North Carolina, North Carolina Primary, obama, primary election | No Comments »