Sanity and Pwns

In a recent post, I predicted that Hillary Clinton would defeat Barack Obama by 6% in Indiana’s democratic primary. If you have been following this race, you know that Indiana is a big deal. Most people would agree that Obama has a better shot here than he ever had in Pennsylvania, and if he takes Indiana and North Carolina, it should end the Clinton campaign… Or at least, it’s viability.

The recent polls have peaked my interest, though, so I’m here to go a bit more in depth about what the numbers are showing. There is a misconception that Obama, at some point, had Indiana in his pocket. But as I’ve hinted at before, that was simply wishful thinking on the part of the media. Obama lead in five of six polls from April 10th to April 24th. Only two of those leads were beyond the margin of error, compared to one lead during that time period for Clinton beyond the margin of error. These polls can be found at http://www.realclearpolitics.com.

One thing we see is a consistent anomaly that has occurred over the last week. Zogby Tracking Poll has put out four daily polls, all within the margin of error, and Obama estimated to be ahead in each of them besides the first, in which there was a tie. SurveyUSA’s poll, released today, has Clinton at +12%, while three other recent polls have her at +4% or better.

Change

So what’s realling going on in Indiana? To understand that, I like to compare two polls conducted by the same organization.

According to a SurveyUSA poll released during Obama’s brief lead in Indiana, Obama was effectively tied with Hillary Clinton among white voters and females (within the margin of error).

But according to a SurveyUSA poll released today, in which Clinton holds a 12% lead, the numbers are drastically different. Among female voters, Clinton leads 60% to 38%, with only 1% undecided. Among white voter’s she holds a 58% to 39% lead.

The variation within this month of polling is most likely due to voters who are unwilling to announce their support for Clinton so far in advance of the primary, in order to avoid allowing themselves to be as pre-determined statistic-type voters, where the whites vote for Clinton, or the oldies vote for Clinton.

The racial gap has either grown drastically during the controversies surrounding Obama and a lot of negative, cultural-racialy orientated media coverage, or It was simply less visible during mid-April.

The Almighty Dollar

There is something else going on beneath the surface in Indiana. Recent bickering over gas plans has become a primary issue. The new issue is reflected in a recent Suffolk University poll, which shows perhaps, that Democrats in the mid west are moving towards a more moderate or conservative position along with the Clinton campaign.

Although the poll shows that Barack Obama has a higher favorability rating, and is seen as most likely to be the next President, Indiana voters gave Hillary Clinton a 6% advantage (49-43). This seems odd - how can a person who is seen as less likely to win, less likable - be leading in the poll?

The answer, at least partially, is apparent in questions about priorities and taxes. 54% of voters surveyed said the economy is their top issue. And here is where things really get confusing: 48% of voters surveyed support President Bush’s tax cuts being made permanent.

And this is a Democratic primary.

This tells us a few things: The demonization of taxation is prominent in the mid west, even among Democrats, and that Hillary Clinton’s support of a gas tax holiday is moving people her way.

Even so, I would be lying if I didn’t say that Zogby’s four recent polls give me a bit more of a feeling that Obama could make this one close, perhaps even pull off the shocker. Still, I think my original prediction of 6% for the May 6th primary is about where the over/under line should remain.